Lunchtime Talk: Geoeconomics outlook and expectations for recovery
May 25, 2021
1:00pm – 1:45pm (GMT+09:00) Osaka, Sapporo, Tokyo
Open to All Attendees
Dr. Sri-Kumar’s talk will focus on three major issues – the pace of recovery from the ongoing global covid crisis, which countries are likely to be the first to get on a sustainable recovery path, and investment classes that are likely to benefit most.
China is already in recovery due to strict measures undertaken to arrest the spread of the pandemic. Due to the Chinese speed relative to the US in the application of the vaccine, China is likely to surpass the US as the largest economy in the world even prior to 2030 as had been expected earlier. Emerging Asia and the US are likely to come out of the crisis before Europe does.
To the extent countries are forced to make structural adjustments – former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Third Arrow” – that would be a positive byproduct of the crisis. In Europe, there is a move toward issuing a common regional bond which would be a big step toward regional integration.
Dr. Sri-Kumar will point out that global inflation is likely to pick up in the post-covid era – a positive factor for holders of equities and real estate who have a medium-term investment horizon. Bonds, on the other hand, are ending their long winning streak and are likely to be losers over the next several years.